a large and complex social system with many interrelated parts. Any strategy that involves crossing a valleyaccepting short-term losses to reach a higher hill in the distancewill soon be brought to a halt by the demands of a system that celebrates short-term gains and tolerates stagnation, but condemns anything else as failure. Be sure to watch the opposing viewpoint from Robert Gordon." Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on if TED videos are blocked) "The US economy has been expanding wildly for. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, by Lempert, Popper, and Bankes; rand report, 2003 A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The current problem, however, is rarely like any they previously faced; thus, the lessons they bring forward are not relevant. Fourth, the framework highlights the need to treat both the systemic pathologies and the individual impediments by focusing effective remedial measures on the right target and at the appropriate level. In this sparkling talk from tedglobal 2011, he asks us to embrace our randomness and start making better mistakes." Margaret Heffernan: Dare to disagree - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on if TED videos are blocked) "Most people instinctively avoid. It a person masters the fundamentals of his subject and has learned to think and work independently, essay for children on my parents he will surely find his way and besides will better be able to adapt himself to progress and changes than the person whose training principally consists in the. Army Leadership Development and Leadership ( local copy ), by Hinds and Steele, in Military Review, Jan-Feb 2012 Colonels, lieutenant colonels, and chief warrant fives were also surveyed about what skills were lacking for recent PME graduates.
Francis Bacon, On the Interpretation of Nature, 1603 See red team thinking, especially the ufmcs Red Team Handbook See decision making See abductive, deductive, and inductive reasoning See design See argumentative and persuasive communication See media affecting decision making Improve Your Critical Thinking, resources. Our profiles of proven idea makers, action-oriented tips, and annual conference are all designed to help you transform ideas from vision to reality." PopTech videos "Were a global community of innovators, working together to expand the edge of change." MIT Technology Review videos darpa. In this sparkling talk from tedglobal 2011, he asks us to embrace our randomness and start making better mistakes." The Decision-Making Process for Complex Situations in a Complex Environment, by Benner and Benner, First chapter in Burstein,. Wicked problems do not have an enumerable essay high school life experience (or an exhaustively describable) set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into the plan. Action Learning Guide ( local copy ), from Presidential Management Fellows (PMF posted by OPM - check especially the appendices for items/tools such as inference ladder, four frames, conflict management, stakeholder mapping, force field analysis, and more Mind Tools, a good site for quick pass. The internet is the cheapest and easiest resource for all information today including outline formats for informative essays. Solving real problems using game mechanics. Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), by Cooper, CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, Dec 2005 The Analytic Pathologies framework yields four insights that are crucial both to accurate diagnosis and to developing effective remedies. Army War College, explores a wicked problem through the lens of the 10 characteristics of a wicked problem (from Rittel and Webber) There is No Definitive Way to Frame a Wicked Problem.